Introduction

Seeing prior to Monaco ePrix I played down Mitch's ability as Formula E driver, only for him to then lead the points standings for the most races consecutively in his career, I want to see if I could keep this jinks-ing ball running by seeing which competitors (driver, team, manufacturer) is likely to win their respective championships. This is done by calculating their average qualifying and finish to extrapolate the likely points total scored at each track for each competitor. The specific competitors we will look at are: Mitch Evans, Oliver Rowland, Edoardo Mortara, Pascal Wehrlein, Jaguar TCS Racing, Porsche Formula E Team, Porsche (manufacturer), and Jaguar (manufacturer). While some may consider 5th place Jake Dennis a title contender, I do not as I believe that he is too far back to make any gains on Mitch. The points for pole position and fastest lap will only be considered if a driver/team has the best record at a circuit amongst their competitors, for hypothetical positions, the average finishing position will be rounded to nearest whole number and we will only consider results from the Gen 3 era (this only affects London). For the teams, the average for race finishes will be calculated on car by car basis, while qualifying and fastest lap will see both results combined. For the manufacturers, the same will apply, but will only calculate the average for finishing position and by the grid which scores the manufacturer points.

Shanghai

Drivers

None of the drivers have the best qualifying average around this circuit (Nick Cassidy is the best with a qualifying average of 5) as: Pascal has a qualifying average of 5.75, Oliver's average is 8.25, Mitch's average is 10, and Edoardo is way off with an average 17. It gets worse for Edoardo as his finishing average is a paltry 19 and this includes 2 DNFs (race 1 for both Season 10 and 11), while the best of the quartet is Rowland with an average finish of 8th then Pascal with an average of 9th and Mitch Evans with an average of 10th. Nick Cassidy has the best average for fastest race lap around Shanghai, so he is likely to take that point.
Hypothetical Drivers' Standings post-Shanghai (Rounds 12 and 13):

1. Mitch Evans: 130
2. Oliver Rowland: 117
3. Pascal Wehrlein: 105
4. Edoardo Mortara: 103

Teams

The team with the best qualifying average in Shanghai is DS Penske (a team that we do not know will be returning for next year), so there's no discrepancy between the hypothetical driver results and team results in regards to pole. Also, as Pascal and Mitch have only driven for their current teams in Gen 3, their averages will count towards Porsche Formula E Team and Jaguar TCS Racing respectively. The 2nd car at Jaguar (driven at this circuit by Nick Cassidy) has the best qualifying average, while in the race it has an average of 7.25. The 2nd car at Porsche (driven by Antonio Felix da Costa for all 3 circuits) has qualifying average of 7 and has finishing average of 8.75 which will be treated as an 8th place as its other car has an average finish of 9 exactly. Jaguar are likely score the fastest lap as they are the team with the best average in that regard.
Hypothetical Teams' Standings post-Shanghai (Rounds 12 and 13):

1. Jaguar TCS Racing: 236
2. Porsche Formula E Team: 202

Manufacturers

The highest finishing Jaguar car has a finishing average of 3.25 (rounded to 3) on the manufacturer scoring grid which is split amongst Mitch, Nick Cassidy, and Sebastien Buemi, with Nick being the most common at 2 times (race 2 in both Season 10 and 11). The 2nd best Jaguar car has a finishing average of 5.5 (rounded to 6) split amongst Nick, Mitch, and Robin Frijns, with the latter being the most common at 2 times (both races in Season 11). Porsche's best finishing car has a finishing average of 2.25 (rounded to 2) and is split amongst Pascal, Dan Ticktum, and Antonio Felix da Costa, with Pascal being the most common at 2 times (race 1 in Season 10 and race 2 in Season 11) and their 2nd best car finishes on average 5th with an even split amongst Jake Dennis, Norman Nato, Pascal, and Antonio.
Hypothetical Manufacturers' Standings post-Shanghai (Rounds 12 and 13):

1. Porsche: 380
2. Jaguar: 329

Tokyo

Drivers

As qualifying for the first race last season was cancelled, I have not included it in calculating the averages although it does not matter for who has the best qualifying average around Tokyo as it is Oliver - in fact we have yet to have a race in Tokyo where he has not started 1st. Although, this seems to be an ability granted to only him as his teammates have not fared so well (see Teams section for an explanation), so to be consistent across championships, he will only have 1 pole position (his monopoly on pole positions around Tokyo will end) Edoardo and Pascal also have very good qualifying averages at 4 and 5 respectively (they have the 2nd and 3rd best qualifying averages respectively at this circuit), but in the same way Shanghai is Edoardo's bogey track, Mitch's bogey track is Tokyo as his qualifying average is 13.5 and his average finish is even worse at 17.5 (I do not count the 2nd race from Season 11 as he did not compete in it). Oliver has the best finishing average at 1.67 (rounded to 2), while Pascal has a respectable average of 6.67 (rounded to 7) and Edoardo has a slightly concerning average finish of 13.3 (rounded to 13) Like with Shanghai, Nick Cassidy has the best average for fastest race lap so would be likely to take that point, also Mitch has the worst average for fastest race lap with 20.
Hypothetical Drivers Standings post-Tokyo (Rounds 14 and 15):

1. Oliver Rowland: 156
2. Mitch Evans: 130
3. Pascal Wehrlein: 117
4. Edoardo Mortara: 103

Teams

The team with the best qualifying average in Tokyo does not employ the driver with best qualifying average, as the team in question is Porsche, so there will be discrepancy. As a compromise, rather than sweeping the pole positions, they will instead only walk away with one each. Jaguar's qualifying average is one of the worst as they only beat out their customer team with an average of 14.75. The 2nd car at Jaguar has worser qualifying average than its teammate at 16, but its miles better in races as its finishing average is 8.33 (rounded to 8).Porsche's 2nd car isn't any better than its first in either category, as it qualifies on average 8th and has a finishing average of 10.67 (rounded to 11). With regards to the fastest lap, Nissan Formula E Team have the best average, so are the most likely to take that point (this of course conflicts with the driver findings but seeing as neither Jaguar, Porsche, nor any of the 4 drivers are affected, I'll leave it be).
Hypothetical Teams' Standings post-Tokyo (Rounds 14 and 15):

1. Jaguar TCS Racing: 244
2. Porsche Formula E Team: 214

Manufacturers

The highest finishing Jaguar car has a finishing average of 5.33 on the manufacturer scoring grid which is split amongst Nick Cassidy and Sebastien Buemi, with Nick being the most common at 2 times (Season 10 and race 2 in Season 11). The 2nd best Jaguar car has a finishing average of 8 split amongst Sebastien and Robin Frijns, with the latter being the most common at 2 times (Season 10 and race 1 in Season 11). Porsche's best finishing car has a finishing average of 3.33 (rounded to 3) and is evenly split amongst Pascal, Dan Ticktum, and Jake Dennis and their 2nd best car finishes on average 4.67 (rounded to 5) with it split amongst Antonio Felix da Costa and Dan, with the former being the most common at 2 times (Season 10 and race 1 of Season 11).
Hypothetical Manufacturers' Standings post-Tokyo (Rounds 14 and 15):

1. Porsche: 430
2. Jaguar: 357

London

Drivers

Mitch Evans has the best qualifying average of any of the driver, with an average of 2, so is the most likely to to take pole position. Pascal has a qualifying average 5.33, Oliver has an average of 9.5, and Edoardo has an average of 12.67. Mitch has an average finish of 3.83 (rounded to 4), which is best of the quartet as Pascal has a finishing average of 5.5 (rounded to 6), Oliver has an average of 11.5 (rounded to 12), and Edoardo has an average of 11.67 (also rounded to 12). The best average for fastest race lap is held by Sebastien Buemi and the best of quartet is Pascal who fastest race lap average of 7.83, 4th best of the current drivers. As shown below, Mitch's strong history at London and Oliver's weak history at the same circuit is enough for Mitch to take back the lead in the standings and win the title for the first time, also this still applies if I give Oliver a 2nd pole at Tokyo.
Hypothetical final Drivers' standings:

1. Mitch Evans: 160
2. Oliver Rowland: 156
3. Pascal Wehrlein: 133
4. Edoardo Mortara: 103

Teams

The team with the best qualifying average in London outright is Jaguar and will sweep pole positions and the 2nd car at Jaguar is based off the performance of 2 drivers, as in Season 9 (2022-2023) Sam Bird drove for Jaguar alongside Mitch Evans, so its qualifying average is 6.83 (rounded to 7). Porsche's 1st car is better than Jaguar's car with a qualifying average of 5.33 (round to 5), however its 2nd car is has an awful qualifying average of 15.83 (rounded to 16). In terms of finishing average, Jaguar's 1st car has an average of 3.83 (rounded to 4) and its 2nd car has finishing average of 6.167 (rounded to 6) which is pretty close to the finishing average of Porsche's 1st car whose finishing average is 5.5 (rounded to 6), but its 2nd finishing average is only slightly better than its qualifying average at 14.167 (rounded to 14). With regards to the fastest lap, Cupra Kiro have the best average, so are the most likely to take that point and this of course conflicts with the driver findings, but Dan Ticktum (driver for Cupra Kiro) has the 2nd best fastest race lap average and none of the top 4 drivers are affected. If you are wondering why a former backmarker team somehow has the best fastest race lap average - just remember London is a very tight and twisty circuit so the energy usage is a lot smaller, so they have to restrict the amount of power available to get the same kind of racing and thus evening the playing field in terms of speed. The downfall for Porsche's is its 2nd car
Hypothetical final Teams' Standings:

1. Jaguar TCS Racing: 290
2. Porsche Formula E Team: 230

Manufacturers

The highest finishing Jaguar car has a finishing average of 1.5 (rounded to 2) on the manufacturer scoring grid which is split evenly amongst Nick Cassidy and Mitch and the 2nd best Jaguar car has a finishing average of 3.67 (rounded to 4) split amongst Nick, Mitch, Sebastien Buemi, and Robin Frijns, with the Sebastien being the most common at 3 times (both racs in Season 10 and race 2 in Season 11). Porsche's best finishing car has a finishing average of 2.5 (rounded to 3) and is split amongst Pascal and Jake Dennis evenly and their 2nd best car finishes on average 8 with it split amongst Pascal, Norman Nato, Jake, and Antonio Felix da Costa, with the former 2 being the most common at 2 times each (both races in Season 9 for Pascal and both races 1 Season 10 for Norman). While Jaguar outscore Porsche in London (the only track in which the leading Jaguar has a better average points score than its german equivalent), the worst circuit for the leading Porsche is Tokyo, but that is also Jaguar's worst circuit.
Hypothetical final Manufacturers' Standings:

1. Porsche: 476
2. Jaguar: 417

Alternative Methods

As the points scored for finishing 11th is the same as finishing 20th, meaning that a DNF hurts more than a race where they are off-pace and not a true reflection of the competitive pace of a driver at that circuit. So, rather than relying on average qualifying, finishing, and fastest laps to calculate the possible points scored and instead we use average points scored then Mitch Evans would just win the championship with 178 points over Oliver Rowland's 175. This is because Mitch scores on average 8.75 points (rounded to 9) in Shanghai which is more than Oliver's average of 5.75 points (rounded to 6), obviously loses the lead in Tokyo as Oliver has an average points score of 22.33 (rounded to 22) compared to Mitch's 0, only to reclaim it in London as he has an average points score of 16.167 (rounded to 16) compared to Oliver's average of 6.25 (rounded to 6). Pascal is good at the upcoming circuits, but is not the greatest, so slowly falls out of contention and Edoardo's only great track comping up in terms of results is London, but his average points score there is 4.67 (rounded to 5) so he falls out of title contention a lot faster and a lot harder (I don't think he will finish 4th in the standings come the end of the season).
For the teams there's no real change as Jaguar TCS Racing would still win 330 to 292 as Porsche Formula E Team can only outscore them in Tokyo in terms of average points but its not be a large amount as Jaguar scores an average of 4 points compared to Porsche's average of 15. For the manufacturers Porsche still win the title with 474 points to Jaguar's 433 and the gap is slightly closer because across the 13 races (4 Shanghai races, 3 Tokyo races, and 6 London races) I looked at, a Jaguar powertrain was victorious 6 times so the points for 1st cover for the positions with less points that the finish does not.

Conclusion

Based of average finishes, qualifying, and fastest race laps Mitch Evans win his title and does so based on average points scored as well, however, he would win the championship under either method with the lowest points total since Nyck de Vries's title back in Season 7 (2020-2021). Jaguar TCS Racing would win the their 2nd ever Teams' title, more convincingly based on average finishes, qualifying, and fastest race laps compared to average points scored. Porsche would win the Manufacturers' title under both methods again, with average points scored providing a slightly closer battle. Ultimately, this is no real indicator as to what will happen as the data sets are quite small and can be influenced by outliers as for example: Oliver Rowland has on average scored 6.25 points across his 4 races in London in Gen 3, but all of them came in 1 race and his other finishes are outside the top 10 (next best finish is an 11th). Another example is that of Edoardo Mortara, whose 2 DNFs in London hurt the average finish (11.67) of someone who is likely to be guaranteed a points finish as shown by his average points score of 4.67.

References

Here is a list of the webpages in which I visited in order to write this post.

• FIA, Formula E. (no date) 'Timing Results', formulae.fia.com, [Online]. Available at: https://results.formulae.fia.com/results (Accessed 27th June 2026)